As Bloomberg is reporting today that some economists have pencilled out how all can run quite smoothly over the next year or two. Jobs come back, but slowly. Inflation stays mild. Interest rates rise slowly and not until we get into 2005. Markets keep rising. Almost too good to be true. Holding this up next to doom and gloom from some other corners, it makes me wonder if the system we have evolved over the last century or so really is a giant Ponzi (pyramid) scheme like some claim or if the global economy isn’t more like an arms race sort of scenario, ultimately stabilized by the prospect of mutually assured destruction.
Loosely related to this, I’m heartened by DonIannone‘s reference to this from Business Week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is projecting 8 million more jobs than workers by 2010. Seems like the ramp-up to that ought to be starting pretty soon then. And it sounds like it’s going to be easier to find interesting things to do. Flexible schedules, too, I imagine. Creative and productive retirements. However, the primary driver for the rosy scene reported by Bloomberg was slack in the labor supply. Go figure.
More and more, I am coming to believe that everybody is right. The whole thing is going to crash and burn while everything works out just fine. The stories we cling to about what retirement, for instance, “should be” and how healthcare, education and other kinds of work “should be” organized are likely to take a pretty good hit. This is, in part, why I see Open Space Technology as a sort of hospice care for “the way things have always been done around here.” But I also see it as midwifery. Life goes on.
Everything’s just gonna have to be different AND the vast majority of all of us will just keep on keepin’ on, living life as happily as we know how, as long as we’re lucky enough to be here. My bet today is that Life is thicker than the stories and plans and procedures we wrap it up in. My experience is that OpenSpaceTech helps our stories and connections keep up with inevitable flow of Life.
What’s more, I do think that all the talk that [somebody] should be creating more jobs and/or somehow creating more workers is mostly missing the mark. The question is “what is each of us — you and me — doing to maximize our own learning and contributing to value in our organizations and communities?” If anything is really going to crash and burn, it’s the story that somebody or something out there is going to make everything all right.
Everybody’s got gifts, talents, skills, passions, experiences, and connections. Everybody. And if there really is a labor shortage coming, then we’re gonna need everybody to be using all they’ve got! Anybody who uses more and more of themselves each week and year is bound to be noticed, appreciated and looked after, over time, by friends, co-workers, and neighbors. In the end it seems that stocks, Social Security and even “risk-free” US Treasuries will turn out to be much riskier investments than neighbors and neighborhoods. Is it time to re-balance the portfolio?